2008 |History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Russia Recognizes South Ossetian and Abkhaz Secession

With a statement by President Medvedev on Tuesday, Russia has formally declared recognition of the secession of the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and that Russia considers them now as independent states.

No doubt, Russia's confidence has been bolstered by the United States practically acknowledging that America would not wage war with Russia over Georgia's territorial integrity, and by Europe's lackluster response to the crisis. As usual, the Europeans just sent a bunch of shocked words. At least the Americans sent humanitarian aid in military vehicles and vessels, especially with the Air Force and Navy, giving a small 'innocent' threat to Russia. The Europeans cemented their roles as the pansies of NATO.

As Georgia suggests, South Ossetian and Abkhaz independence will lead to either de jure or at least de facto annexation of the two regions by Russia. North Ossetia is already part of Russia. Most Abkhaz and South Ossetian people have Russian passports and many are Russian citizens. They would approve of Russian annexation of their 'countries.' Especially as Russia is developing faster than Georgia, in no small part due to Russia's interference in Georgia and the Caucasus.

Russia, boosted by hydrocarbon-driven economic growth feels stronger and that the country can take on NATO and the United States, the way they felt during the Cold War. Indeed, President Medvedev has stated that plummeting relations with the West could lead to another Cold War.

The thing is, a Cold War is between superpowers. Russia is no longer a superpower. The Soviet Union was replaced by the People's Republic of China for title of 'challenger to American-Western rule'.

Russia's population is in decline, and the average lifespan of a Russian is on par with that of a stagnant African country. Russia will not be a superpower soon. They have neither the wealth nor the manpower. What they do have is the nukes, but those are decaying and decrepit.

Should NATO recognize Chechen independence in retaliation? That's the thing about authoritarian countries. Sometimes they have regions that want independence. Russians have acted as though they fought on behalf of defending South Ossetian and Abkhaz self-determination, in the same fashion that much of the West supported independence for Kosovo. Now will Russia allow Chechnya to achieve sovereignty in the name of self-determination? They should, lest they be shown to be hypocrites. Meanwhile, the democratic West does not have would-be secessionist regions contained by force. Some Scottish and Flemish want independence from their home countries, but they have not decided on independence; the British and Belgians aren't preventing Scottish and Flemish independence militarily. Thus, the West can take the moral high ground in secessionist issues in a way which authoritarian countries such as Russia and China cannot.

And if Russia does legally annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then will the United States finally annex Canada and Mexico?

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Russia needs to be sent a firm message to put the country in place, but the question is how to make such a message without ending up with a war between nuclear powers. China should be persuaded to take a stance critical of Russia. Russia has been supported by their Chinese buddy; if China is not a partner, then Russia will think twice about being aggressive.

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Friday, August 1, 2008

EU Membership: The antidote for corruption?

Is EU membership an antidote for corruption? It seems as though that could be the case.

In a synopsis of a recent poll of perceived corruption in many countries, Transparency International noted that the prize of EU membership was enough to galvanize and encourage governments to clamp down on corruption in their countries.

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So, one of the goals of the EU, to promote good governance in the states of Europe, seems to be working. Because candidates for EU membership have to demonstrate that their countries are not corrupt, and that democracy and economic institutions are strong and stable, states put in considerable effort to get their countries into tip-top shape, pressured by their populaces eager to join the EU. Because of this, corruption has decreased in many of the countries of eastern and southeastern Europe.

Now if there were only some way to similarly entice other corrupt countries and regions of the world to fight the corruption which is holding down their nations' development.

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Monday, July 14, 2008

Sarkozy's Mediterranean Union: Unifying the Divided.

Yesterday, French President Nicholas Sarkozy launched the Mediterranean Union, an alliance encompassing the EU and countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea, in Paris. The idea of a Mediterranean Union has been something of a pet project for Mr. Sarkozy, and many analysts expecting this launch--and indeed the union--to be little more than a bit of political flash and glitter.

France and Egypt will be the first co-chairs of the Mediterranean Union (Source: Website of the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union 2008).

While the ultimate fate of the Mediterranean Union may indeed disappoint, the inauguration of the union far surpassed the cynical expectations. For starters, even before the official launch of the Mediterranean Union, French helped procure an agreement for Lebanon and Syria to set up full fledged embassies in each other's country, something which has not happened since both Syria and Lebanon gained independence from European rule. Then there was the seeming rapprochement between Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the West Bank's President Mahmoud Abbas.

However, it does seem somewhat unfair, and even divisive, that while all members of the European Union are now members of the Mediterranean Union, even those European states which do not even border the Mediterranean Sea, that not all members of the African Union are made member states of the Mediterranean Union. Undoubtedly, sub-Saharan Africans' North African neighbors did not push all that hard--or at all--for every African Union state to be granted admittance to the union. The one North Africa leader who might have made such an effort, Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, did not attend, viewing the union as an attempt at colonialism.

For the Arabs, having a union with Europeans being initiated by the French in Paris is fitting, as the word for Europe in Arabic is derived from the word for 'France.' For Israel and Turkey, both those countries have strong ties to the Gallic country.

The union will comprise 43 states, consisting of the EU, North Africa, and Levant; additionally, the union will be headed by a "North-South co-presidency."

Meanwhile, the website for the French Presidency of the European Union 2008 states as the basis of the Mediterranean Union:

"a political mobilisation at the highest level through Summits of Heads of State and Government every two years; a governance on an equal footing, in the form of a North-South co-presidency and a permanent secretariat with equal representation; a prioritising of concrete projects with a regional dimension that create de facto solidarity."

These principles are largely for the purpose of realizing two goals, reducing illegal immigration from North Africa, and reducing regional hostilities.

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All quotes and pictures in this article are from the Website of the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union 2008.

This last goal will be particularly difficult. Already mentioned, are rivals Israel and Syria, along with the Palestinians and Lebanon. Then there are Greece and Turkey, Morocco and Algeria, and even Spain and Morocco and Turkey and Cyprus. Many of these were brought up by President Sarkozy himself. He hopes that the Mediterranean Union will bring peace and prosperity to the Mediterranean region the same way that the European Union brought peace and prosperity to Europe.

This is a noble objective, but a difficult one to achieve. As stated, many of the countries have political rivalries. There is also the issue of religious values between Christians, Atheists, Muslims, and Jews. Add onto that that there is a huge gap in the levels of economic development between members, far more than between members in the European Union. And there is also system of government; while many are officially democracies, many would be more appropriately considered autocracies. Sarkozy, France, and the member states have a lot of work cut out for them if they are going to make the Mediterranean Union a success.

If the Mediterranean Union works, then that will be great for the world, showing that a region with diversity in 'race,' religion, politics, ideologies, and values can work together equitably and peacefully for the good of all in that region. In essence, unifying those which were divided.

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Thursday, July 10, 2008

European Racism.

One often hears about how racist and discriminatory the United States is. Often this criticism emanates out of Europe. Indeed, the United States does have a sizable share of the world's racists. However, Europe has its own group of racists, so to point the finger solely at the United States is more than a little hypocritical. This European streak of racism has recently flared up again in two cases, that of Italy's decision to fingerprint members of its Roma (commonly referred to as Gypsy) community along with an surge in racially based hate crimes in Ukraine. Europe can--and should--criticism the United States (and other countries in the world) over racism, but should also clean up its own house, so to type.

Italy has passed a requiring the fingerprinting of Roma in their country in the wake of several high profile crimes by Roma. While the Italians are in the right for trying to protect themselves and the order of their country, the way to do that is not to treat all members of a racial community as suspects--which this law effectively does--even if a lot of crime occurs from individuals in that community. 'Individuals' being the main point. These crimes are being carried out by individual people. There is not some grand Roma plan to wreak havoc in Italy or something--besides, the Italians can do that on their own. Across Europe, if the Roma were given the same considerations as members of the majority ethnic communities, there would little reason why their community would not develop to the same standards as their majority ethnicity neighbors. It is because of discrimination that the situation of the Roma is so bad. And don't try to point to 'blacks' in the United States. Today, although as a group they still face social--not legal--discrimination, most 'blacks' are part of the middle of American socio-economic society.

Meanwhile, Amnesty International as reported that there's an uptick in hate crimes in Ukraine. Targeted at members of several racial groups such as Roma, South Koreans, and Jews, many of these racists seem to be neo-Nazis. As is too often the case among societies, the Ukrainian government downplays the racist elements in their population. Ukraine is hardly alone in that--many Americans, Chinese, Koreans, Europeans, Latinos, Africans, etc. try to sweep the racism in their own countries under the rug. The thing is, in Ukraine, people are being killed due to their 'race.' That is abnormal for most countries, with some African states being an exception. Meanwhile, one Ukrainian politician who analogized these 'race'-based attacks by ethnic Ukrainians to "the immune system - the reaction of a healthy body to the infection that got into it," seems more fitting for an Asian politician, not a European one.

As a continent (or subcontinent), Europe as a whole is fairly decent in respect to opposing racism. In the Italian case, the EU Parliament has scolded Italy and called on the country to immediately halt the fingerprinting. The Europeans that have personally met have seemed to be generally non-racist. Still, as with all countries and regions, Europe can do a bit more to eradicate the baseless discrimination of racism.

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Friday, June 13, 2008

Irish Reject Lisbon Treaty.

Today, the results from Ireland's referendum on the Lisbon Treaty have been revealed. Ireland is the only member state of the European Union expected to hold a referendum on the treaty--which has many similarities to the defunct Constitution for Europe--as the country is required by its own constitution to hold a referendum on treaties or laws which would alter the Irish constitution. With most member states' parliaments expected to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, the some 1.5 million Irish who voted were voting on behalf of the more than 490 million EU citizens over whether or not the Lisbon Treaty should be passed to reform the EU and streamline the European institution.

The Irish have responded with a resounding vote 'No.'

Many Irish could not comprehend the wording of the treaty, and wisely figured that a legal agreement should not be signed unless it is understood. Indeed, as opposed to the would-be EU Constitution, the Lisbon Treaty is a mishmash of earlier treaties and utilizes confusing legal jargon. You can have a look for yourself, here, and see whether or not you can make heads or tails of the contract.

So, what now?

Many analysts have speculated whether Ireland would be forced to take another stab at Lisbon if they should first reject the treaty, and vote again in the hope that the Irish would agree to the Lisbon Treaty on a second try, the way they have before. Some quarters consider this to be implausible as the European Union has come under criticism for being undemocratic. Forcing a member state's electorate to vote and vote again until they pass the Lisbon Treaty would almost seem as though the European Union was looking for a rubber stamp approval from its people. After France and the Netherlands, two influential founding members of what would become the EU, the Constitution for Europe was scuppered rather than forcing those large and powerful member states from re-voting (though that could also be because such were French and Dutch attitudes toward the EU Constitution, that they would have probably rejected the treat again, and dealt it a second blow).

Without the Lisbon Treaty or the Constitution for Europe, the EU would be legally hindered from expanding beyond 27 member states, which the organization already has. Furthermore, passing EU law could become more difficult if approval from each of those 27 states were required and if each of those countries were given a position on the EU Commission. In foreign affairs, a more divided European Union would have a more divided voice, a weaker voice, across the globe.

And yet many of those opposed to the way Lisbon was peddled have a strong case. In a democratic system, the citizenry should have a say in the passage of major laws which would affect them. The people should at least be consulted. At most, the formation of the Lisbon Treaty and its ratification was indirect, with the exception of Ireland.

For the sake of the European Union, many of the points of the Constitution for Europe and the Lisbon Treaty should be made law. The EU should be reformed so that it can work more effectively, efficiently, and can have a greater influence for its people.

But the European Union should also be reformed so that it is more democratic, and reflects the will of the people it is supposed to serve.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

United States of Europe or the EUSSR?

On June 12, Irish voters go to the polls to vote on the Lisbon Treaty, which proponents argue will streamline the EU and make the now 27 member organization more efficient and pave the way for further future enlargement, and opponents say is a big step towards a federal European superstate.

Taking this latter tack, the question to be discussed in this blog is 'how will a federal EU end up?' Some have given their approval to a United States of Europe, while others use that same term negatively, as something ruinous for Europe. Still more--primarily those who reject the idea of a federal Europe--use the term EUSSR to describe their vision of such a European superstate, hearkening to connotations of a centralized, monolithic monstrosity which controls its people rather than the other way around.

Firstly, it should be pointed out that Europe has little choice but to unify in some form if today's European countries want some clout on the world stage. No longer can they rely on higher technology than foreign nations to impose their wills and persuade others to do their bidding. As individual countries, they no longer have an edge with having larger populations than most states. If Europe wants to succeed in realizing its interests and protecting itself, then European states will need to federalize or confederate to some degree. No European country individually, UK or otherwise, will be able to be a big player in global affairs. And even if Europeans would be willing to be minnows in a pond with big fish--an improbable scenario given common European attitudes--they still need to look after themselves. Small countries can be more easily pushed around than large ones. The West opened up to Communist China because it was large. The United States supported nuclear deals with India--which is not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and made nuclear bombs partly with stolen technology--because it was large. The rules for big states unfortunately are not the same as for small ones.

So will the EU become a United States of Europe or a EUSSR.

On Europeans' side, the western part of the EU, which is the more dominant part in terms of both population and prestige, has a long tradition of 'democracy,' or--more accurately--representative government. The UK in particular could be considered the parent of modern democracy in the world. Additionally, many of eastern members are strongly pro-democracy even though democracy is much younger in that region; this being due to the oppression these countries faced under Communist rule. The idea that these states would be able to uphold their democratic credentials in a European federation or confederation is fairly strong.

However, the western part of the EU also has a strong tradition of rendering an enormous amount of power to their governments through various socialist ideals. There is a long history of European states giving their governments immense power over them, their governments abusing that power, the oppressed citizenry uprising and overthrowing the government, and then--astoundingly--giving their new governments immense power over them.

Europe has little choice but to form either a federation or confederation of states if it wants to preserve at least a moderate degree of its current status. That is a plain and simple fact. The European government would be wise to give more power to its citizens, and European citizens would be wise to keep power from the its government.
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Monday, May 19, 2008

Words to live (forever) by: John 3:16.

wall. wall. wall. wall.

John 3:16 (King James Version)

"16For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life."

wall. wall. wall. wall. wall.

Biblegateway.com.

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History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Russia Recognizes South Ossetian and Abkhaz Secession

Friday, August 1, 2008

EU Membership: The antidote for corruption?

Monday, July 14, 2008

Sarkozy's Mediterranean Union: Unifying the Divided.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

European Racism.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Irish Reject Lisbon Treaty.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

United States of Europe or the EUSSR?

Monday, May 19, 2008

Words to live (forever) by: John 3:16.

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