May 2008 |History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe

On June 12, Irish voters go to the polls to vote on the Lisbon Treaty, which proponents argue will streamline the EU and make the now 27 member organization more efficient and pave the way for further future enlargement, and opponents say is a big step towards a federal European superstate.

Taking this latter tack, the question to be discussed in this blog is 'how will a federal EU end up?' Some have given their approval to a United States of Europe, while others use that same term negatively, as something ruinous for Europe. Still more--primarily those who reject the idea of a federal Europe--use the term EUSSR to describe their vision of such a European superstate, hearkening to connotations of a centralized, monolithic monstrosity which controls its people rather than the other way around.

Firstly, it should be pointed out that Europe has little choice but to unify in some form if today's European countries want some clout on the world stage. No longer can they rely on higher technology than foreign nations to impose their wills and persuade others to do their bidding. As individual countries, they no longer have an edge with having larger populations than most states. If Europe wants to succeed in realizing its interests and protecting itself, then European states will need to federalize or confederate to some degree. No European country individually, UK or otherwise, will be able to be a big player in global affairs. And even if Europeans would be willing to be minnows in a pond with big fish--an improbable scenario given common European attitudes--they still need to look after themselves. Small countries can be more easily pushed around than large ones. The West opened up to Communist China because it was large. The United States supported nuclear deals with India--which is not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and made nuclear bombs partly with stolen technology--because it was large. The rules for big states unfortunately are not the same as for small ones.

So will the EU become a United States of Europe or a EUSSR.

On Europeans' side, the western part of the EU, which is the more dominant part in terms of both population and prestige, has a long tradition of 'democracy,' or--more accurately--representative government. The UK in particular could be considered the parent of modern democracy in the world. Additionally, many of eastern members are strongly pro-democracy even though democracy is much younger in that region; this being due to the oppression these countries faced under Communist rule. The idea that these states would be able to uphold their democratic credentials in a European federation or confederation is fairly strong.

However, the western part of the EU also has a strong tradition of rendering an enormous amount of power to their governments through various socialist ideals. There is a long history of European states giving their governments immense power over them, their governments abusing that power, the oppressed citizenry uprising and overthrowing the government, and then--astoundingly--giving their new governments immense power over them.

Europe has little choice but to form either a federation or confederation of states if it wants to preserve at least a moderate degree of its current status. That is a plain and simple fact. The European government would be wise to give more power to its citizens, and European citizens would be wise to keep power from the its government.
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Found this article interesting? Check out:
The Roadmap to the Future.
The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel.
The Vegetarian Diaries.